The Institute of Risk Management - North West England Regional Members Group

Forthcoming Meeting(s)

Date	26 January 2012
Time	10.00 for 10.30 - 16.30
Subject	‘Black Swan’ Events
Location	Hill Dickinson, No 1 St Paul's Square, Liverpool
Details	Synopsis How should we manage the risks of high impact but very low likelihood events? Historically, the impact of these events has, in aggregate, been much greater than the risks that we routinely experience and manage on a day to day basis. Consequently, should they be treated and managed differently from other more likely risks? Or are they just one end of the spectrum of risks that we address using our normal risk management processes? Lord Weinstock (former Managing Director of GEC) had a philosophy that you should never undertake anything that could bring down the company, no matter how improbable. This seminar will consider these questions and associated issues from the perspective of speakers from the private sector as well as the safety and environment regulator. The title for the seminar comes from the Theory of Black Swan Events which is a metaphor that encapsulates the concept that The event is a surprise (to the observer) and has a major impact. After the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book: 'The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable'. to explain: 1. The disproportionate role of high-impact, hard to predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology 2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities) 3. The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs Speakers: • Daniel Clarke - Head of Profession for Safety, Amec - was the media furore from Fukushima as bad as it can get for the nuclear industry? Were there any lessons that we learned from Chernobyl that had a bearing here? What are the longer term implications of Fukushima? Where do such low probability scenarios feature in the Safety Case and is the concept of the 'Design Basis Accident' something that is transferable to other sectors? • David Snowball, Director, Hazardous Installations Directorate, HSE - what is the UK regulatory philosophy for regulating for 'black swans'? What is the role of historical experience of major disasters (UK and international) in influencing this philosophy? How does our Public Inquiry system have a role in this? What is the regulator's expectations with respect to quantification of black swan risks and where does this fit in the Safety Case regime? • John Summers - Chief Risk Adviser - Risk Group, Rio Tinto - John will give a personal take on common misunderstandings about 'Black Swan' events and highlight the link to connected risk through a couple of high profile illustrations. He will also address the question: 'What sort of events might be classified as a 'Black Swan' for large organisations?' How are these addressed at the Board level of a large, multinational organisation? Is this different from the way that companies addresses day to day risks? • Speaker from Cass Business School (tbc) - one of the co-authors of the recent report "Roads to ruin. A study of major risk events: their origins, impact and implications." will present the findings from their investigations into a sample of major corporate risk events, from the last decade, in order to find lessons that could be learned from them. • Tim Reeder - Regional Climate Change Programme Manager, Environment Agency - flooding scenarios are by definition high impact and climate change means that they are likely to become more frequent. Given this uncertainty, how should Government policy be developed in the flooding area and is it meaningful to base policy on the frequency of events? What is the role of other stakeholders (insurance, residents, businesses) in setting the policy agenda? How does the Environment Agency go about engaging with these stakeholders? And to what end? . • Jason Bleasdale, Director, Hill Dickinson. - Jason will give a legal perspective around Governance and related issues arising from the issues raised during the seminar. Lunch and refreshments will be provided and the meeting is free of charge. We are very grateful to Hill Dickinson for sponsoring IRM activities in this way.
Booking	Please book though Trisha Wikinson of Risk Solutions. You can email her on patricia.wilkinson@risksol.co.uk or call her on 01925 413984.

Date	April 2012
Time	Tbc
Subject	Quantitative assessment
Location	Tbc
Details	Quantitative assessment – when is it appropriate? And what is it good for?
Booking	Tbc

Date	July 2012
Time	Tbc
Subject	The ‘soft’ side of risk management
Location	Tbc
Details	Risk behaviours, perceptions, attitudes, culture, appetite, thresholds, risk maturity modelling. Further details to follow.
Booking	Tbc